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"Afghanistan: Climate Change and Internal Displacements "


  • SOLICITATION NUMBER: 0002016440
  • INSTITUTION:  IBRD/IDA
  • ASSIGNMENT LOCATION: Afghanistan
  • ISSUE DATE AND TIME: May 27,2025 05:16
  • CLOSING DATE AND TIME: Jun 10,2025 23:59

BackgroundAfghanistan is the sixth most vulnerable country globally expected to suffer from the negative effects of climate change. The country is highly vulnerable to intense and recurring natural hazards; which will only be exacerbated by climate change. Since 2000; natural disasters such as droughts; earthquakes; epidemics; extreme temperature; floods; landslides; and storms have affected nearly 19 million people; resulting in 10;656 deaths. Climate change is expected to influence the overall variability in temperature and precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) patterns; consequently resulting in generally drier conditions; heightened risks of flash floods and drought; and a rise in extreme weather events such as heat and cold waves. Climate change impacts will exacerbate exposure to shocks of agriculture-based livelihoods and ecosystem; and drive displacement and migration. ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº's Groundswell report projects that by 2050; without urgent climate and development action; over 40 million people in South Asia could be compelled to migrate within their own countries due to climate change impacts. Climate migration is expected to intensify over time; with hotspots of in- and out-migration emerging as early as 2030. In South Asia; migration drivers include reduced water availability; decreased crop productivity; and rising sea levels; which disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable regions. Afghanistan¡¯s dependency on rainfed agriculture; and existing vulnerabilities to climate variability make the country similarly susceptible to similar migration pressures. For example; the 2018 drought forced more than 37;000 people to leave their land for temporary settlements in peri-urban areas. There are existing gaps in knowledge on the climate-induced displacement in Afghanistan; and the impact on vulnerable populations. Understanding the relationship between climate change and its impacts on internal displacement; especially from the perspective of vulnerable populations; is critical to the design of appropriate livelihood interventions. ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº through the Climate Resilience PASA (P500817) aims to expand knowledge on the challenges to sustainable and inclusive growth and development in Afghanistan; considering the climate and disaster shocks as well as the compounding structural risks and threats faced by the country; including climate-induced migrations with a focus on the most vulnerable populations (such as people with disabilities; women; unaccompanied elderlies). ObjectiveThis research and analysis seek to fill a gap in existing knowledge on the multi-sectoral impacts of climate-induced internal displacement with a view towards identifying priority areas and actionable strategies.This will contribute to the Bank¡¯s understanding of the impact of climate. Insights gained from the analysis will inform the Bank¡¯s activities and projects; contributing to the design and implementation of appropriate interventions; to ensure that they are responsive to climate change impacts. Findings will also be used in technical dialogue and engagement with relevant stakeholders.

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