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BRIEF

Trade Policy and Fragmentation Visualization Tools

What¡¯s changing in global trade and trade policy? How do these shifts affect development and welfare? And how should developing economies respond?

These are the core questions driving the Development Research Group¡¯s Trade Fragmentation Research Initiative. In response, our researchers produce cutting-edge studies that blend academic rigor with policy relevance.

This website brings that research to life through interactive, user-friendly visualization tools. Users can explore how trade policies and fragmentation affect different countries and outcomes by adjusting scenarios and generating custom graphs in real time.

Some advanced tools may require high computing power and are currently accessible only through the World Bank intranet. However, we offer publicly available installers, along with data and source code (when permissible), so researchers and students can use them locally.

We¡¯re continually expanding this portal with new tools and features¡ªstay tuned!

Highlighted Charts

The figures below illustrate how trade costs, drivers of economic growth, and trade patterns evolved across different regions in recent years.

 

    • TradeFragmentation-Carrousel1-v2
      Source: World Trade Organization (WTO). 2024 estimates cover data up to October 15th.

      Trade restrictions surged

      Since 2009, cumulative import restrictions have surged, reaching nearly 12% of global trade by the end of 2024.
    • TradeFragmentation-Carrousel2
      Source: Artuc, Lasso & Taglioni (Forthcoming) (*)

      One reason for the growing protectionism might be that export-led growth is waning for some

      Export-led Growth Index in the period 2017-2019, compared to the period of hyper-globalization (2002-2007). Positive index implies Export-led Growth, negative values Domestic-led growth. (*) Calculations using TIVA Input Output tables.
    • Trade Fragmentation Carrousel 3
      Source: Artuc, Lasso & Taglioni (Forthcoming) (*)

      Which countries¡¯ growth is most (least) export-led in 2019?

      Half of the world¡¯s economies are export-led growth, while the other half¡¯s growth is driven by domestic forces. (*) Only 60 countries are reported due to data availability constraints. Codes represent ISO country names.
    • TradeFragmentation-Carrousel4
      Source: Artuc, Lasso & Taglioni (Forthcoming) (*)

      From Globalization to Fragmentation: World Trade Communities in the 2020s

      Global trade has splintered into five distinct blocs in the 2020s, up from just two in the 1990s¡ªcentered around North America and Europe. (*) Calculation using UNCOMTRADE bilateral data. Each color represents a community.
    • TradeFragmentation-Carrousel4
      Source: Artuc, Lasso & Taglioni (Forthcoming) (*)

      Some countries bridge trade blocs, while others trade within their own communities

      Connector countries play the dual role of shock propagators and buffers across trading blocs.
    • Trade Fragmentation High income countries
      Source: Kee and Nicita (2022), estimates for 2018. Bars represent unweighted average restrictiveness across all countries in each income group.

      High-income countries reliance more on restrictive NTMs than other countries

      High-income countries have relatively low tariffs but impose comparable¡ªand in some cases higher¡ªad valorem equivalents for Non-Tariff Measures reflecting a shift toward regulation-heavy trade regimes.
    • Trade Fragmentation GDP and NTMs
      Source: Kee and Nicita (2022), estimates for 2018, unweighted averages of NTM AVEs and tariff restrictiveness.

      Tariffs and Non Traiff Measuress (NTM) are Policy Substitutess

      Lower tariffs co-exist with more restrictive NTMs, suggesting that countries are replacing tariffs with NTMs to maintain policy space to implement domestic and global agendas

     

    Visualization of the most recent trade data

    This allows users to explore real-time trends in global goods trade as monthly data are released. Users can track trade flows over time, compare year-over-year and monthly changes, and analyze shifts by country, commodity, or region. The data featured in the dashboard is also used to prepare the Trade Watch quarterly notes, a joint product with World Bank ETIRI.

    Last updated on June 30, 2025. To download additional annual trade data, visit the (WITS) database. 

    Simulation tools (optimized for desktop use)

    Available on the World Bank Intranet: This online simulation tool focuses on food trade disruptions, given their importance for developing countries. It allows users to explore the effects of food trade disruptions on household welfare in two ways: by modeling the impact of export restrictions from major producers, or by entering hypothetical price increases to simulate a variety of shocks¡ªwhether triggered by trade policy, domestic measures, or natural disasters. 

    • Helen Charles

      Choose a crop and an exporting country and explore how food export restrictions affect earning and living costs for households across 50 developing countries.

    • ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº

      Explore the impact of crop price increases on household income and welfare. Originally designed for trade shocks, the tool also simulates effects from policy changes or natural events.

    External use: This software with installer offers the same simulation features as the online tools, with additional flexibility to run the tools offline and adapt them for teaching or research purposes. They include installer, source code, and data when non-confidential:

    Publicly available simulation: We are working on other publicly available online tools to visualize and simulate the impacts of a wider variety of shocks, drawing from recent World Bank research.

    Additional Resources

    • (Presentation)

    RELATED

    Trade Fragmentation Research Initiative

    Trade and International Integration Research Program

    Development Research Group