Uganda aims to reach upper-middle-income status by 2040 on the back of steady GDP growth since 2011, largely driven by agriculture and services, but climate change threatens these gains as most poor households already suffer income losses from climate shocks. By 2050, the country could face up to 613,200 additional people in poverty, 12 million internal climate migrants, a 3.1% GDP shortfall, more deaths from waterborne diseases and malaria, and rising flood-related road repair costs.