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"Disaster and Climate Vulnerability Assessment of the Power Sector in Uzbekistan"


  • SOLICITATION NUMBER: 0002018025
  • INSTITUTION:  IBRD/IDA
  • ASSIGNMENT LOCATION: Uzbekistan
  • ISSUE DATE AND TIME: Aug 28,2025 05:09
  • CLOSING DATE AND TIME: Sep 15,2025 23:59

Uzbekistan is highly exposed to disaster risks such as earthquakes; floods; and droughts. Over the past century; average annual air temperatures have risen steadily and significantly in Uzbekistan; accompanied by more frequent heatwaves; droughts; and flooding. Average annual air temperatures in Uzbekistan have risen steadily over the past century; with an average rate of 0.27¡ãC per decade from 1950 to 2013. Climate change can negatively impact energy supply through potential damage of power infrastructure in certain regions of the country; a reduction in hydropower generation due to changes in river flows; and the creation of energy shortages during the summer; primarily due to heat and drought. The country¡¯s energy system is significantly aged and not well maintained; which causes high losses and low reliability of supply. Most of the electricity infrastructure is operating beyond their useful lifetime; including 62 percent of the distribution networks; 74 percent of substations; and more than 50 percent of transformer stations; resulting in frequent equipment failures. In its current condition the power transmission and distribution systems are highly vulnerable to climate and natural hazards. Those ageing physical infrastructure makes it more challenging to provide undisrupted power for the fast-growing domestic electricity demand. Without support to adapt and reduce disaster risks; the impacts of climate change are likely to be unequal; disproportionately affecting Uzbekistan¡¯s poor and marginalized communities. It is critical to incorporate more resilient and adaptive designs in modernizing transmission and distribution assets. Uzbekistan has set ambitious renewable energy goals as part of its strategy to transition to a green economy. The government plans to develop about 15 GW of net generation capacity by 2030; with a significant focus on increasing the share of renewable energy in the country's power generation mix. The projected increasing share of renewables; which are less predictable and more variable in nature; will make the power system more climate and natural resources driven. To mitigate the renewable energy¡¯s variability and unpredictability; the power system needs to be more flexible with automation and remote-control capabilities through digital technologies. The overall aim of the assignment is to provide the World Bank with a comprehensive understanding of the vulnerability of the Uzbekistan power sector to disaster and climate risks and possible measures to inform the dialogue with the Government of Uzbekistan. The specific objective of conducting a vulnerability assessment of power assets and systems against disaster and climate risks is to systematically evaluate and quantify potential impacts on the network and their consequences for resilience; reliability; and sustainability. This process involves identifying and characterizing disaster and climate risks; assessing vulnerabilities within the power system; analyzing the impacts on the network; evaluating the consequences for users¡ªsuch as outages and cascading effects¡ªquantifying and prioritizing risks; implementing mitigation strategies; and establishing continual monitoring and adaptation frameworks. The assessment aims to enhance resilience; inform decision-making; prioritize mitigation efforts; and ensure the ongoing reliability and sustainability of power systems in the face of disaster and climate risks.

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