Tajikistan Poverty and Equity Assessment analyzes the country’s progress in reducing poverty. The report highlights rising inequality, climate risks, and limited job creation, and recommends policy actions to foster inclusive growth, strengthen resilience, and expand opportunities for all citizens. Data-driven insights inform strategies for a more equitable future. The assessment underscores the urgency of sustainable, inclusive economic transformation.
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The Tajikistan Poverty and Equality Assessment outlines pathways to continue reducing poverty in the country while advancing structural transformation toward more equitable domestic economic growth.
Tajikistan has sharply reduced the number of people living in poverty—from 56% in 2010 to just over 20% in 2023—while the middle class expanded from 8% to 33%, with 35% of households moving up between 2021 and 2023. However, these gains stemmed more from rising incomes within existing jobs and remittances than from domestic job creation or structural transformation. Despite an average growth of 7% in 2013–23, employment elasticity was only 0.2, with expansion concentrated in capital?intensive, state?dominated sectors. Agriculture still employs 60% of all workers but generates just a quarter of GDP, and private, labor?intensive services have stagnated.
The assessment cautions that dependence on migration and remittances—over 30% of Tajikistan’s GDP—has reduced poverty but widened inequality, with the Gini rising from 32 to 38 between 2021 and 2023. Spatial disparities remain stark: regions such as Khatlon, the Districts under Republican Subordination, and Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast host most of the country’s poor and face severe geographic and climate-related constraints. Low labor force participation, especially among women (21%), slow urbanization, weak internal mobility, and education gaps further limit access to higher?productivity jobs and hinder broad?based middle?class growth.
Key policy priorities include:
The assessment concludes that Tajikistan’s poverty reduction is commendable, but a model reliant on migration and remittances cannot underpin long?term prosperity. To build a stronger, more inclusive economy, Tajikistan must generate jobs at home, lower geographic and economic barriers to opportunity, and ensure that growth benefits all segments of society. The challenge is not only to sustain poverty reduction, but to transform the economy so that prosperity is homegrown, resilient, and benefits all.
